What will be
by Michael L. Dertouzos · 1997
Genre: Nature
Rating: 4.2/5
A prescient look at the internet's early days, *What Will Be* by Michael L. Dertouzos offers a compelling vision of the digital future, though one steeped in an optimism that hindsight has complicated.
Michael L. Dertouzos’s *What Will Be* is a prescient, if occasionally over-optimistic, exploration of technology's future.
As a memoir editor, I approach all texts through the lens of lived experience, even those not explicitly autobiographical. Dertouzos, in this book, offers us a unique intellectual memoir of a particular moment in technological history, reflecting both the aspirations and blind spots of his era, which makes it a fascinating read for anyone interested in the evolution of ideas.
Published in 1997, *What Will Be* serves as a remarkable time capsule, capturing the exhilarating, often breathless, optimism surrounding the internet in its nascent public stages. Dertouzos, then director of the MIT Laboratory for Computer Science, was uniquely positioned at the forefront of this digital revolution, and his insights are grounded in a deep theoretical understanding coupled with practical engagement. He envisioned a future where the internet, or the 'Information Marketplace' as he termed it, would fundamentally reshape commerce, education, and human connection, and many of his predictions, though sometimes broad, have indeed come to pass in surprising detail.
What elevates this book beyond a mere technical prognostication is Dertouzos's clear, accessible prose, which manages to make complex technological concepts understandable to a general audience. He avoids jargon where possible, and when he uses it, he explains it patiently, reflecting a genuine desire to bring readers into his world of rapidly accelerating change. His enthusiasm is infectious, painting a picture of a future brimming with possibility, driven by human ingenuity and the democratizing power of interconnectedness. This makes the book not just informative, but genuinely engaging, a testament to his skill as a communicator.
The book excels in its early recognition of fundamental shifts that were then only beginning to manifest. Dertouzos foresaw the rise of e-commerce, the potential for personalized information delivery, and the blurring lines between work and leisure, all facilitated by digital networks. His discussion of the 'information appliance' pre-dates the smartphone by more than a decade, showcasing an impressive intuition for user-centric design and ubiquitous computing. He wasn't just predicting technologies; he was predicting cultural and societal shifts driven by those technologies, which is a far more challenging and ultimately more valuable endeavor.
However, the book's major blind spot, and where it feels most dated, is its almost unwavering optimism regarding the benevolent nature of technological progress and its applications. While Dertouzos briefly acknowledges concerns about privacy and security, these are largely brushed aside as solvable engineering problems, rather than deep societal or ethical dilemmas. He largely overlooks the potential for digital divides, the weaponization of information, or the profound challenges of misinformation and algorithmic bias that have come to define our current digital landscape. This omission, while understandable for its time, reveals a certain naiveté about human nature and power dynamics that would later complicate his grand vision.
Ultimately, *What Will Be* is a testament to the power of informed speculation and the intellectual courage to project into an uncertain future. It serves as a fascinating historical document, a record of a moment when the digital world was still largely unwritten, filled with both immense promise and unforeseen pitfalls. Reading it today offers a valuable perspective on how far we’ve come, and perhaps more importantly, how much of the human element, both good and bad, remains constant even as our tools evolve. It’s a compelling argument for the importance of critical foresight, even when the crystal ball is cloudy.
Key Takeaways
- Technological Foresight
- Early Internet Vision
- Optimism’s Limits
Summary
- Michael L. Dertouzos's *What Will Be* is a non-fiction work from 1997 that explores the future of technology, particularly the internet.
- As the director of the MIT Laboratory for Computer Science, Dertouzos offers a visionary perspective on the emerging 'Information Marketplace'.
- The book accurately predicts many elements of modern digital life, including the rise of e-commerce, personalized information, and ubiquitous computing devices.
- Dertouzos presents complex technological ideas in clear, accessible language, making the book engaging for a broad audience.
- His enthusiasm for the transformative potential of the internet is evident throughout the text, painting a picture of a future brimming with possibility.
- A primary critique is the book's pervasive optimism, which largely sidesteps the significant ethical and societal challenges that technology would later introduce.
- It notably downplays potential issues like privacy concerns, digital divides, misinformation, and the weaponization of data.
- Despite these omissions, the book remains a valuable historical document, offering insight into the foundational visions that shaped our digital world.
Chapter Guide
- Chapter 1: Part 1: The Digital Groundswell
- Dertouzos introduces the burgeoning digital landscape, emphasizing its transformative potential beyond mere technological advancements. He sets the stage for understanding the internet as a societal force, not just a tool.
- Chapter 2: Part 2: The Human-Centric Vision
- This section outlines Dertouzos's core philosophy: technology should serve humanity, enhancing communication and understanding. He argues against a purely tech-driven future, advocating for human needs to guide digital development.
- Chapter 3: Part 3: The Information Marketplace
- Dertouzos explores the concept of the 'Information Marketplace,' where digital goods and services are exchanged globally. He discusses the economic implications and the potential for new forms of commerce and collaboration.
- Chapter 4: Part 4: Challenges and Concerns
- This part addresses the darker side of the digital future, including issues of privacy, security, and the digital divide. Dertouzos warns against unbridled optimism, highlighting the need for careful consideration of societal risks.
- Chapter 5: Part 5: Shaping the Future
- Dertouzos offers prescriptions for navigating the digital age, emphasizing education, policy, and international cooperation. He calls for a proactive approach to ensure technology serves collective human good.
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